✅ THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: DONALD TRUMP?✨

✅ THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:
THE DONALD?
✨


So Hope springs eternal.

With some notable exceptions, a significant plurality of pundits continue to augur - and fervently hope - that the end of the Trump campaign will arrive sooner rather than later.

They base their forecasts on some movements in some polls which seem to show a downward trend for The Donald. Yet, as anyone who has seen the British version of House of Cards, knows, polls are a tricky thing, which can be manipulated any number of ways to spew out the result you want. Thus, they have to be taken with a grain of salt, and it is why Real Clear Politics does an average of all polls to get a clearer picture of any trends.

Having said all of that, in all polls - even those which ostensibly show a bit of a drop - Trump continues to be the frontrunner, and in some polls, has even widened the gap with his next competitor, causing the pundits to continue to be at a loss with what accounts for Trump's appeal, and most especially the fact that that appeal has remained respectably consistent.

They have come to accept that there is an unresolved anger emanating from the Republican base, that has found in Trump both its expression and its champion.

However, that analysis stops short. Trump has long ago transcended the Republican base. His support is far more generalized, tapping into segments other Republican candidates have not been able to reach. One only needs to observe not only the support of some Afro-Americans, but the fervor and depth of that support. Ditto for some Hispanics, notwithstanding Trump's opening salvo against illegal immigration. The deeply-held need and desire for more jobs apparently trump everything else.

Thus, the disconnect is not only as between the Republican elite and its base, it is pretty much as between all elites - from both parties, and definitely including the pundit class - and the general population.

Indeed, Trump is, contrary to the assertion of some pundits, not necessarily just a product of the disenchantment with the Republican establishment. He is first and foremost the product of the Obama Administration and its penchant for imposing its will by jamming it down the throat of a resistant populace. The depth and breath of the resistance and discontent was more than amply evident in the recent historic intermediate elections, which basically saw the country as a whole turn red at all levels of government: per Matt Yglesias, 70% of state legislatures, 60%+ of governors and 55% of attorneys general and secretaries of state, are now all populated by Republicans.

Trump emerged as a champion only after the Republicans not only did not capitalize on their wins in those elections, but - instead of embracing - affirmatively excoriated and marginalized the very representatives the people sent to Congress, and which gave the Republicans their majorities in both houses of Congress. 

That whole nonsense that all Republicans had to vote a certain way, or be punished for a contrary vote, notwithstanding the view of their constituencies which, under the U.S. system of government, they represented, had to be the nail in the coffin. Speaker Boehner may well be a good man, but he was/is not leading the Congress of a banana republic where the allegiance is to the parties and the party bosses, and not to the people they ostensibly represent.

The Democrats, on the other hand, have veered to the extreme left - also loosing all moorings to a generally center-right population. The only difference is that they (a) close ranks to defend their views and each other, and (b) they have the liberal media in their pocket, which, up until now, has consistently intimidated the Republicans. 

One reason Mitt Romney lost is that he thought the mainstream media would treat him fairly. A gross miscalculation. Meanwhile, Hillary is being coddled and protected both by her party, and the media, at each and every turn. The debate was nothing more than a simulation to allow Hillary to shine and try to put her many scandals behind her. Unless Hillary is indicted following the FBI investigation into her handling of her e-mails (a long-shot, notwithstanding that others who have done a lot less, have indeed been fired and/or incarcerated) - it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that she will be the Democratic Party's nominee.

On the Republican side, Newt Gingrich pushed back against the media, but then came under a hail of "friendly" fire which ultimately doomed his campaign. Trump is currently experiencing the Newt Gingrich treatment and it will be interesting to see if he makes it through the "friendly" fire.

The Donald just might: putting aside all the bluffing and the braggadocio, Trump has a winning customer-centric style. He does not give speeches - "rambling" as one pundit put it, or otherwise: he has warm conversations with his audiences, where all his body language is one of engagement, of bringing the audience in and getting them invested in him and his campaign, all underscored by a master salesman excelling at his craft- indeed, you can practically check off one by one all the effective sales techniques of a true and successful professional salesman.

These days, probably in response to the matter of whether he is sufficiently "presidential," Trump is sporting a serious demeanor. But his eyes still sport "the look": that piercing, very focused, very intense, concentrated look all great CEOs and leaders have. Not only does it convey a keen presence in the moment and that they are closely following and power listening to everything the interviewer says, but also basically says, "I'm not to be trifled with." Interestingly, Jeb Bush does not have that look, and often gives the impression that while he is hearing the interviewer's words, he is not really listening to them . . . and then the gaffes.

All things being equal, both Trump and Carson proved their mettle when they refused to bow to CNBC's strictures on the next Republican debate. Beyond the matter of the additional ad revenue, clearly CNBC wanted the contenders to look bad, and in the end, probably hoped that fatigue would produce gaffes which would be next day's headlines. Trump and Carson would have none of it, and good for them. 

In politics, a week - even hours - can be an eternity. 378 days until November 8, 2016, is therefore an eternity to the "nth" degree, where absolutely anything can  - and probably will - happen on both sides of the aisle. 

Indeed, on the Democratic side, Joe Biden just announced that he will not go for it, after all, which could only be good news for Hillary - and the eventual Republican nominee. On the Republican side, only one thing is more or less certain: the staying power of The Donald should not be underestimated - he has got the persona, the style, a message that resonates, the resources, and the counterpunches, for the long run. 

The recent 2014 truly historic intermediate elections have made it plain that the country is more than fed up with the direction the United States has been taking under the Democrats' rule. Consequently, the chances are better than even that a Republican will be the next President. In that regard, like it or not, The Donald just might be in line to becoming the next President of the United States of America.

ACEPUNDIT

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